Thoughts from Posidonia 2018

It’s an even-numbered year and it’s June, which – for those in shipping – can only mean one thing: it’s Posidonia time! And, Posidonia it was, the 50th occasion of the international shipping community convening to Athens for the industry’s flagship event.

The cold facts: it has been reported that more than 100 countries have been represented, more than 1,800 exhibitors showcased their trades and more than 22,000 visitors attended the event with an estimate of half of those visitors originating outside Greece. No one could doubt, based on such enormous numbers, the significance of the event to the maritime industry, and, by association, the importance of Greece and the Greek shipping community to the maritime industry. Posidonia has been a truly “must attend” shipping event for its size, the wealth of market info available, and, this being Greece, for its fun, party scene and the great weather!

Having attended Posidonia for numerous times now, one can get a “feel” of the market and observe a lot by just watching, in the immortal words of Yogi Berra. Here have been a few of our observations:

In June 2008, when the shipping markets were white hot and the BDI was topping 12000 points, the Posidonia attendance was standing at just 16,000 visitors; now, ten years later and the BDI at a tenth of its former glory (presently appr 1300 points), the Posidonia attendance was higher by almost 36%. It does seem that Posidonia 2018 was marginally better attended than Posidonia 2016 which was better attended than 2014, which was … Posidonia once again proves that it’s an exhibition with eternal appeal, in good and bad times, where participants congregate to seek market intelligence.

Given the state of the freight market in the last decade, there has been no exuberance this time around with the by-now famous “Posidonia party scene”, since long are the times when company parties were esteemed by the number of Russian models in attendance. However, we have noticed that there have been many more corporate events and receptions than in previous times, quite often discreet and with less noise; mostly dinner receptions where guests could discuss market developments under the full moon in the Greek summer breeze with a drink in their hands. Seeing greater social activity but of less noise and of higher caliber has been an encouraging observation, in our opinion, as it’s a sign that the market gets back to fundamentals and away from the pretense of the past times.

Although freight markets are weak, and frankly the crude tanker freight rates downright painful, we noticed an air of solid perseverance and mild enthusiasm. Posidonia traditionally has been one of the most optimistic conferences in shipping, in our opinion; however, this time we did not notice vainglorious enthusiasm of “bring it on” but rather guarded optimism that since we have survived these terrible markets so far, there is little else that can shock us. Things are getting better, or at least they will get better. Probably this weird mix of sarcasm, resilience and enthusiasm is another sign that the market is reverting back to the fundamentals and logic and away from unfounded enthusiasm and speculation.

And, what a better sign of speculation than newbuilding orders? While in the good times Posidonia was a time of announcing of massive newbuilding orders – just to keep up with the Joneses – this time around, there barely have been any newbuilding announcement; for sure, there have been a couple of them, mostly from well established shipowners and with an LNG focus, but the majority of the market has been keeping clear of new orders. Probably another encouraging observation that the market is slowly shifting back to fundamentals.

Newbuilding orders cannot take place without plentiful and cheap financing, and speaking of the devil, there barely were any financiers in the whole greater Athens region! In the past, shipping banks hosting Posidonia parties used to be a parallel event of its own; this time around, just a handful of banks held discreet dinner parties for their clients and closed advisors with little outward attention. And, even more importantly, a complete dearth of equity fund, hedge funds, mezz funds, credit funds, alternative capital funds and other representatives of “master of the universe” species… Most of the financiers we saw were traditional long-term shipping market players who have been through the ups and downs of the industry a couple of times. Gone were the opportunistic or speculative investors who were de rigueur in previous Posidonia, another sign of the market’s efforts to revert to the mean. On the funny side of things, shipping financiers seem to be getting special attention as shipping finance is very hard to come by these days, and shipping financiers are as precious as the apple in one’s eye these days.

Shipping finance has been a hot topic of the exhibition, as one would expect. Despite selective activity, most shipping banks keep exiting the industry and dumping shipping loans, while the cost of capital keeps going up for most, not to mention the increasing interest rates that pose an additional risk to the industry at a time of soft freight rates. Chinese leasing has been a strengthening trend as well as preference by shipping banks for corporate loans (instead of asset-based ship mortgages), while institutional investors kept bearing the deriding scorn of “dumb money” in shipping and the sinners of a tonnage oversupplied market.

But the critical topic of Posidonia 2018 has been the upcoming regulations for fuels and emissions; and, here, we left the exhibition as uncertain as we were when landing in Athens at the beginning of Posidonia. Multiple panels and presentations and opinionated discussions on emissions, but we drew the conclusion that no-one really has a crystal ball on the subject; the possible outcomes ranged from this being a non-event (postponement into the future) to being a catastrophic event (too costly and not enough volumes clean fuels) that would reset the industry to this being the greatest thing in shipping in the last decade (accelerated scrapping and disappearance of less-capitalized shipowners.) A wide range of opinions indeed that render decision-making in such a challenging environment not dear for the meek in the heart; but again, that’s how money is made.

The Greek shipping community still stands strong, and, in general, in the news in the last few years, especially when it comes to opportunistic vessel acquisitions in the secondary market. Despite market challenges, Greek shipowners keep buying ships (occasionally even at high financing costs), and this purchasing activity contrasts them to other shipping nations that have been less active, or even net sellers of vessels. Thus, a few self-congratulatory remarks were to be expected here and there.

Posidonia is for sure the shipping event to attend; so much info to be learned as the as the vastness of the big ocean itself!

Posidonia 2018. Image credit: Karatzas Images

© 2013 – present Basil M Karatzas & Karatzas Marine Advisors & Co.  All Rights Reserved.

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER:  Access to this blog signifies the reader’s irrevocable acceptance of this disclaimer. No part of this blog can be reproduced by any means and under any circumstances, whatsoever, in whole or in part, without proper attribution or the consent of the copyright and trademark holders of this website.Whilst every effort has been made to ensure that information herewithin has been received from sources believed to be reliable and such information is believed to be accurate at the time of publishing, no warranties or assurances whatsoever are made in reference to accuracy or completeness of said information, and no liability whatsoever will be accepted for taking or failing to take any action upon any information contained in any part of this website.  Thank you for the consideration.

Advertisements

‘Shipshape 10’ News for Week Ending July 16th, 2017

‘Shipshape 10 List’, a list of news and articles published in the current week that a senior executive in shipping, shipping finance, commodities, energy, supply chain and infrastructure should had noticed; news and articles that are shaping the agenda and the course of the maritime industry.

Sometimes seemingly tangential, periodically humorous, occasionally sarcastic, sporadically artistic, inferentially erotic, but always insightful and topical.

We apologize for the absence of an update for almost a month to those who have found this blog worthwhile to subscribe to and follow it regularly.

And, this week’s ‘Shipshape 10’:

On the Cosco and OOCL transaction:
1a. China underlines shipping ambitions with $6.3bn takeover of HK group (from the Financial Times) – article quoting Basil M Karatzas

1b. China’s Cosco to Buy Shipping Rival Orient Overseas for $6.3 Billion (from The Wall Street Journal) – article quoting Basil M Karatzas

1c. Cosco Takes OOCL, Eyes CMA CGM (from Splash 24/7)

1d. As Trade Revives, Big China Shippers Merge (from Barron’s)

1e. Karma and Comfort for Orient Overseas (from Bloomberg)

1f. Not Keeping It in the Family (from Week in China)

Dryships once again on front page news:
2. A Shipping Company’s Bizarre Stock Maneuvers Create High Seas Intrigue (from the Wall Street Journal)

Brazilian shipbuilding:
3. In Lula’s Shadow, Brazil’s Shipbuilders Struggle to Right Themselves (from The New York Times)

A UK shipyard is looking far away from traditional lines of business:
4. Mersey shipyard Cammell Laird set to build UK polar research ship (from the Financial Times)

New trading patterns due to expanded Panama Canal become more apparent with time:
5. Panama Canal Does Some Good While Upending Historic Trade Routes (from Bloomberg)

US crude oil exports:
6. US crude exports forecast to exceed most Opec members by 2020 (from the Financial Times)

Wheat trade and possible impact on the dry bulk market:
7. Traders Gobble Up Wheat Amid Great Plains Drought (from The Wall Street Journal)

Opinion article in Splash 24/7 by yours truly on whether there is still time for the famous ‘asset play game’ in shipping
8. The Asset Appreciation Play Has Yet to Leave Port (Basil M Karatzas, from Splash 24/7)

Opinion article by yours truly in Splash 24/7 on shipping finance:
9. Credit is Due to Shipping (Basil M Karatzas, from Splash 24/7)

Summer is the perfect time to to take to the water, this time for pleasure:
10. 5 Summer Water Sports You Can Master the Easy Way (from The Wall Street Journal)

Panamax Containership MV ‘OOCL Montreal’ sailing upstream in Norderelbe, Hamburg. Image credit: Karatzas Images.

© 2013 – present Basil M Karatzas & Karatzas Marine Advisors & Co.  All Rights Reserved.

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER:  Access to this blog signifies the reader’s irrevocable acceptance of this disclaimer. No part of this blog can be reproduced by any means and under any circumstances, whatsoever, in whole or in part, without proper attribution or the consent of the copyright and trademark holders of this website.Whilst every effort has been made to ensure that information herewithin has been received from sources believed to be reliable and such information is believed to be accurate at the time of publishing, no warranties or assurances whatsoever are made in reference to accuracy or completeness of said information, and no liability whatsoever will be accepted for taking or failing to take any action upon any information contained in any part of this website.  Thank you for the consideration.

‘Shipshape 10’ News for Week Ending June 4th, 2017

‘Shipshape 10 List’, a list of news and articles published in the current week that a senior executive in shipping, shipping finance, commodities, energy, supply chain and infrastructure should had noticed; news and articles that are shaping the agenda and the course of the maritime industry.

Sometimes seemingly tangential, periodically humorous, occasionally sarcastic, sporadically artistic, inferentially erotic, but always insightful and topical.

And, this week’s ‘Shipshape 10’:

The biggest story in shipping in the past week, Rickmers Holding Group filing for bankruptcy. A bad market gets to everybody eventually, but again, Rickmers is not your typical shipping name. Effectively shipping royalty with 200+ years of history. Formally established in 1834, opening a rep office in China in 1899, more than a century before China became fashionable in shipping:

1a. Bank Rejects Rickmers Restructure (The Maritime Executive)

1b. German Shipping Firm Rickmers to File Bankruptcy (The Wall Street Journal)

The season’s greatest gathering happened in Oslo this week (Nor-shipping 2017); besides technology and disruption, the hot topic of the event was shipping magnate John Fredriksen:

2a. Shipping tycoon Fredriksen says has succession plan ready (Reuters)

2b. Succession Plan in Place: Fredriksen (Splash 24/7)

2c. Norway’s Frontline in Talks With Gener8 to Create World’s Biggest Tanker Fleet (The Wall Street Journal)

A bright spot in shipping, for now and the future, the LNG market:

3a. U.S. Approves First Offshore LNG Export Application (The Maritime Executive)

3b. U.S. Approves Exports from First Floating LNG Terminal in Gulf of Mexico (gCaptain)

Panama Canal likely one of the biggest beneficiaries of the LNG boom seems to be re-calibrating their pricing model, while Egypt is working on not staying behind and ‘One Belt, One Road’ getting more attraction:

4a. Panama Canal wants to modify tolls structure (Seatrade Maritime News)

4b. Egypt aims to profit from the Suez Canal (Financial Times)

4c. DP World hitches lift on the new Silk Road (Financial Times)

Regulations for shipping still have some time till driving home the message, but given the Trump’s action this week, shipping re-active approach to everything, for once seems appropriate:

5. New shipping fuel regulation set to hit commodities (Financial Times)

And, shipping about shipping and policy, the saga of Greek and German shipping, taxations and policy never seems to miss a chance for some arguing:

6a. Schaeuble ‘proves he does not desire to see Greece on a path to growth,’ says UGS chief Veniamis (Athens News)

6b. Head of Greek shipowners’ union: Schaeuble criticism unfair; Germany has favorable tax regime, too (Naftemporiki)

Shipping banks in the news once again, but again, what’s new?

7a. Worst Offshore Slump Holds Key Lessons for Top Norway Banker (Bloomberg)

7b. Commerzbank moves closer to shedding 4.5 bln euros in toxic ship loans (Reuters)

Seemingly no-news story from a major coal country, but reading through it, miners work on the lowering their stockpiles versus digging and investing; what do they say about their conviction for a brighter coal?

8. Coal India’s Output Declines Amid Focus on Clearing Stockpiles (Bloomberg)

U.S. and Germany have been solid trade partners for decades; recent developments start raising questions on the relationship and trade. What that could mean for shipping?

9a. Trump Paris rejection widens rift with Germany (Financial Times)

9b. Trump’s right about Germany (POLITICO)

9c. Trump Targets German Trade, and the South Grimaces (The New York Times)

9d. On The US-Germany Imbalance (The New York Times)

Shipping is also local:

10. Afloat on the Erie Canal: Sonar Gear, Ferris Wheel Parts and Beer Tanks (The New York Times)

First article is opinion piece in Greek about the death of shipowner Alexandros N Goulandris. Goulandris is a legendary name in the world of shipping, and one of the last few remaining ‘Golden Greeks’ of shipping. Besides his wealth and business success, his life has been characterized by his civic duty to donate generously to cultural and humanitarian causes, mostly in Greece. Something similar cannot be said about the modern way of things which may also explain Greece’s financial and cultural decadence:

11a. Η αφανής κηδεία ενός αφανούς ευεργέτη (Protagon)

11b. Shipowner Alexandros Goulandris Passes Away (Greek Reporter)

Summer sunset on the Port of Piraeus. Image credit: Karatzas Images

© 2013 – present Basil M Karatzas & Karatzas Marine Advisors & Co.  All Rights Reserved.

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER:  Access to this blog signifies the reader’s irrevocable acceptance of this disclaimer. No part of this blog can be reproduced by any means and under any circumstances, whatsoever, in whole or in part, without proper attribution or the consent of the copyright and trademark holders of this website.Whilst every effort has been made to ensure that information herewithin has been received from sources believed to be reliable and such information is believed to be accurate at the time of publishing, no warranties or assurances whatsoever are made in reference to accuracy or completeness of said information, and no liability whatsoever will be accepted for taking or failing to take any action upon any information contained in any part of this website.  Thank you for the consideration.

‘Shipshape 10’ News for Week Ending May 28th, 2017

‘Shipshape 10 List’, a list of news and articles published in the current week that a senior executive in shipping, shipping finance, commodities, energy, supply chain and infrastructure should had noticed; news and articles that are shaping the agenda and the course of the maritime industry.

Sometimes seemingly tangential, periodically humorous, occasionally sarcastic, sporadically artistic, inferentially erotic, but always insightful and topical.

And, this week’s ‘Shipshape 10’:

While lots of shipping hope has been laid at the feet of a Chinese recovery, China’s sovereign debt has been downgraded mostly on concerns of slowing growth:
1. China’s sovereign debt downgraded by Moody’s (Financial Times)

2. China Moves to Stabilize Currency, Despite Promise to Loosen Control (The New York Times)

A seemingly major investor for shipping, but not clear whether there are string attached; in any event, the funding gap in shipping could suck up Dubai’s billion fund in seconds:
2. Dubai looking into forming $1 billion shipping investment fund (Reuters)

Shipping is a commodity b2b business. Od, isn’t it?
Quoting Basil M Karatzas, at Splash 24/7
3. Has Shipping Become Commoditised? (Splash 24/4)

In a weak overall market, mergers in the commodities trading world, and other news:
4a. Sowing Glencore’s Waves of Grain (Bloomberg)

4b. Huntsman and Clariant unveil $20bn tie-up (Financial Times)

4c. Noble Group, a big Asian commodities trader, is teetering

4d. War on Sugar Turns Years of Growth Into Market Tipping Point (Bloomberg)

OPEC had once promised to do ‘whatever it takes’ to drive oil prices higher. This week’s developments from Vienna show that OPEC may not be in charge of the oil markets as it used to be:                                                                                         5a. OPEC Should Watch Glencore’s Bunge Jump (Bloomberg)

5b. OPEC’s Weakest Link Is Not Who You Think It Is (Bloomberg)

5c. Opec: more of the same (Petroleum Economist)

5d. BP and Glencore warned over bullish fossil fuel forecasts (Financial Times)

5e. Oil market awaits ‘whatever it takes’ details as Opec gathers (Financial Times)

And the reason for OPEC’s dwindling chances controlling the oil markets:
6. New era beckons as Euronav VLCC is first to load US oil (Lloyd’s List)

Soft tanker asset prices have been conducive for M&A activity, with Scorpio Tankers acquiring the Navig8 Products Tankers fleet, creating the biggest player in the sector:                                                                                                                     7a. Scorpio Tankers fleet worth $3 bn after Navig8 Product Tankers takeover (Seatrade Maritime)

7b. Scorpio Announces Merger With Navig8 Product Tankers (The Maritime Executive)

While the world of ‘commodity shipping’ is struggling to recover, the cruiseship market has been strong, and China’s prospects in the sector cannot be ignored: 8a. China Tops Two Million Cruise Passengers (The Maritime Executive)

8b. Princess Tells “Chinese Story” Along Silk Road Route (The Maritime Executive)

8c. Greece To Bolster Cruise Capabilities (The Maritime Executive)

The current issue of the Economist is running a series of articles the oceans:
9a. How to improve the health of the ocean (The Economist)

9b. Getting serious about overfishing (The Economist)

9c. Megaprojects threaten Hong Kong’s iconic dolphins (The Economist)

“I will greatly bless you, and I will greatly multiply your seed as the stars of the heavens and as the sand which is on the seashore.” Genesis 22:15-18, and “like the sand of the sea, which cannot be counted” Genesis 32:12. Apparently, sand is not as plentiful these days:

10a. The World is Running Out of Sand (The New Yorker)

10b. An improbable global shortage: sand (The Economist)

Majestic sunset: Piraeus. Image credit: Karatzas Images

© 2013 – present Basil M Karatzas & Karatzas Marine Advisors & Co.  All Rights Reserved.

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER:  Access to this blog signifies the reader’s irrevocable acceptance of this disclaimer. No part of this blog can be reproduced by any means and under any circumstances, whatsoever, in whole or in part, without proper attribution or the consent of the copyright and trademark holders of this website.Whilst every effort has been made to ensure that information herewithin has been received from sources believed to be reliable and such information is believed to be accurate at the time of publishing, no warranties or assurances whatsoever are made in reference to accuracy or completeness of said information, and no liability whatsoever will be accepted for taking or failing to take any action upon any information contained in any part of this website.  Thank you for the consideration.

‘Shipshape 10’ News for Week Ending May 21st, 2017

‘Shipshape 10 List’, a list of news and articles published in the current week that a senior executive in shipping, shipping finance, commodities, energy, supply chain and infrastructure should had noticed; news and articles that are shaping the agenda and the course of the maritime industry.

Sometimes seemingly tangential, periodically humorous, occasionally sarcastic, sporadically artistic, inferentially erotic, but always insightful and topical.

And, we take a minute to thank our readers who took time to contact us and let us us know that they missed reading our reports in the past couple of weeks. Delighted hearing that ’Shipshape 10’ indeed has become a quick way of following up the shipping and related industries.

And, this week’s ‘Shipshape 10’:                                                                                               
On the ‘One Belt, One Road’ initiative, and the recently hosted high-profile ‘Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation’ in Beijing:
1a. Lessons for China in failed US Silk Road initiative (South China Morning Post)

1b. China’s Silk Road Initiative Sows European Discomfort (The Wall Street Journal)

1c. Next Silk Road summit set for 2019 as Beijing ramps up global drive (South China Morning Post)

1d. China takes ‘project of the century’ to Pakistan (Financial Times)

Trade agreements can be hard to re-negotiate when economic factors can interfere with politics:
2a. Trump launches NAFTA renegotiation (Politico)

2b. Prospect of NAFTA rewrite gives US farmers a case of jitters (Associated Press)

Not the biggest port in the world, but events in Buenaventura can underline how delicate the supply chain sometimes can be:
3a. Colombia’s biggest Pacific port placed under curfew (Financial Times)

3b. U.S. Ports Need $66 Billion for Infrastructure (The Maritime Executive)

OPEC for sure is winning the shale war…
4. Full tanks and tankers: a stubborn oil glut despite OPEC cuts (Reuters)

What do to with junk…
5. Old Containers Find Out-of-the-Box Second Lives (The Wall Street Journal)

Hopes that there is a recovery and economies will be growing solidly:
6a. Household Debt Makes a Comeback in the U.S. (The New York Times)

6b. The silent sell-off in US Treasuries (Financial Times)

The offshore and ‘brown water’ industries in the US still under pressure:
7a. Tidewater Files for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy (gCaptain)

7b. GulfMark Offshore Files for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy Protection (The Wall Street Journal)

An old generation Greek shipowner dies
8a. Aristides Alafouzos, owner of Kathimerini, dies (Kathimerini)

8b. Aristides Alafouzos, the founder of Kyklades Maritime, dies aged 93 (Splash 24/7)

There is a price for everything
9. From Deep in Atlantic, Titanic Relics Sail Toward Auction Block (Bloomberg)

Tall tales of drunken sailors no more
10. Terrifying 20m-tall ‘rogue waves’ are actually real (BBC)

A pretty picture of another products tanker in ballast condition. Image credit: Karatzas Images

© 2013 – present Basil M Karatzas & Karatzas Marine Advisors & Co.  All Rights Reserved.

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER:  Access to this blog signifies the reader’s irrevocable acceptance of this disclaimer. No part of this blog can be reproduced by any means and under any circumstances, whatsoever, in whole or in part, without proper attribution or the consent of the copyright and trademark holders of this website.Whilst every effort has been made to ensure that information herewithin has been received from sources believed to be reliable and such information is believed to be accurate at the time of publishing, no warranties or assurances whatsoever are made in reference to accuracy or completeness of said information, and no liability whatsoever will be accepted for taking or failing to take any action upon any information contained in any part of this website.  Thank you for the consideration.