2M | Karatzas Shipbrokers Register

Sometimes seemingly tangential, sometimes humorous, occasionally sarcastic, but always insightful and topical.

And, this week’s ‘Shipshape 10’:

This week’s news predictably has been dominated by Maersk’s acquisition of Hamburg Süd at US$ 4 billion; a couple of years ago, Hamburg Süd had considered a merger of sorts with co-patriot Hapag Lloyd but concerns on pricing and also managerial control had the Oetker family shareholders walk away; some time later, in a new order of priorities, Hamburg Süd sold hook, line and sinker, hooker and exited shipping after 80 years in the business. The price seems a multiple of NAV and of hard assets rather than a multiple of EBITDA and cash flows (although Hamburg Süd being a private company, there is little info to draw upon):

1. Maersk Line to Buy German Shipping Line Hamburg Süd in $4 Billion Deal (from the Wall Street Journal Logistics Report)

Now, much speculation whose hands will be forced to make a move in the rapidly changing seascape of the containership liner business:

2. And then there were 11. Who will follow Hamburg Süd? (from Splash 24/7)

And, also worth reading from the Financial Times:

2A. Asian shipping lines navigate a war of attrition (from the Financial Times)

And, in rather surprising news that rather mud further the waters, the 2M alliance has given Hyundai Merchant Marine (HMM) the cold shoulder for joining the alliance:

3. Ship Alliance Backtracks on Hyundai Merchant Marine Membership (from the Wall Street Journal Logistics Report)

The dry bulk freight market keeps being reasonably strong; lots of sale & purchase (S&P) activity has been reported with many buyers coming out of the woods; some say that this is another sign of a recovering market; in a recent article in Seatrade, Basil M. Karatzas argues that the activity should not be considered a breakout pattern:

4. Is it really the right time to buy ships? (from Seatrade Maritime News)

In the energy world, surprising news with OPEC agreeing to a 10% cut of oil production; the agreement is contingent on several factors and OPEC members are not the best behaved bunch, thus the news has to be taken with a grain of salt; shipping analysts do not seem to agree whether this is a positive or negative net development for the overall shipping industry; such is the world of shipping… No doubt, this is big news if OPEC manages to abide by the agreement:

5. OPEC Confounds Skeptics, Agrees to First Oil Cuts in 8 Years (Bloomberg)

However, the following article can be only be positive for the shipping:

6. Saudi Arabia Becomes Net Fuel Oil Importer (from the Maritime Executive / Reuters)

Staying with macro-economics and the ‘big picture’, a lot has been written about Wilbur L Ross as the leading candidate for Secretary of Commerce under the incoming White House administration; via his firm WL Ross, Mr Ross has been an active distress investor in shipping for crude oil and product tankers, gas tankers and dry bulk vessels. It has been surmised that Mr Ross’ familiarity with the shipping industry, having now access to the highest levels of the government, will act as a catalyst for the industry’s crises; a recent article on Bloomberg reminded the audience that the shipping investments by WL Ross have not been stellar, to say the least, bringing into question whether hopes laden on his person may have to find a port:

7. Wilbur Ross’s Funds Have Posted Mediocre Returns in Last Decade (Bloomberg)

On related news, the nominee for Secretary of Transportation Ms Elaine Chao does have a long interest in the shipping industry via the family business, Foremost Maritime:

8. Trump Picks Elaine Chao for Transportation Secretary (from The New York Times)

In the world of finance, RBS failed their stress test last week; although RBS is not active in shipping anymore, more than US$ 6 billion of RBS shipping loans are up for sale; one has to wonder how, if at all, the latest stress test would affect the development of the shipping loan sale discussions:

9. RBS Must Add $2.5 Billion in Capital After Failing BOE Stress Test (from the Wall Street Journal)

And, also on HSH Nordbank AG:

9A. HSH Nordbank holds meetings with potential buyers: sources (from Reuters)

Princess Cruise Lines, a wholly owned subsidiary of the Carnival Corporation, was fined an eye-popping $40 million after pleading guilty to illegal oily waste discharges in the US:

10. Princess Cruise Lines to Pay Largest-Ever Criminal Penalty for Deliberate Vessel Pollution (United States, Department of Justice, Press Release)

Hamburg Süd’s post-panamax containership MV ‘CAP SAN MARCO’ entering the Port of Hamburg. Image credit: Karatzas Images

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‘Shipshape 10 List’, a list of news and articles published in the current week that a senior executive in shipping, shipping finance, commodities, energy, supply chain and infrastructure should had noticed; news and articles that are shaping the agenda and the course of the maritime industry. Sometimes seemingly tangential, sometimes humorous, occasionally sarcastic, but always insightful and topical.
And, this week’s ‘Shipshape 10’: The dry bulk market has been having an exceptional time, all things considered, and the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has almost tripled since February this year when the market established an absolute bottom. Lots of researching whether this is due to a structural recovery or plain seasonality.

1. Dry-Bulk Shipping Owners Get Reprieve as Rates Rebound (from the Wall Street Journal)

In the containership market, another bleak sign where a seven-year old panamax containership vessel was sold for scrap; less than a decade ago, such vessels were selling for $80 million. A sign of how bad the overall containership market is, and the high asset risk shipowners (and investors) have to undertake:

2. Seven-year-old Rickmers boxship sent for scrap (from Splash 24/7)

While post-elections in the US has been lots of speculation about the direction of the new administration in terms of trade and infrastructure projects, a couple of articles on the subject:

3. TPP: What is it and why does it matter? (from BBC)

and,

4. China Touts Its Own Trade Pact as U.S.-Backed One Withers (from the Wall Street Journal)

In our last week’s report, we included an article about the Taiwanese government setting up emergency funding for their shipping sector; and, the week before that, another article about the S. Korean government supporting their shipping sector. Now, the Singaporean government falls in line, too, by supporting their offshore sector. Hopefully the Greek shipowners will manage to do without government support, if need be. (“One cannot take from someone who does not own” from the Dialogues of the Dead, Lucian of Samosata, 2nd century BC; cynic philosopher Menippos would not pay a coin (obol) to Charon, the ferryman of Hades of the souls of newly deceased, arguing as above; a very valid argument in today’s Greece, in any case.)

5. Singapore government intervenes to save struggling offshore sector (from Splash 24/7)

However, it’s worth noting that Korea Line Company (KLC), a company that had their own spectacular bankruptcy a few years ago in Korea, now has outbid the favorite Hyundai Merchant Marine (HMM) acquiring Hanjin Shipping’s container business; strangely, Korea Line never before had an exposure to or experience with the containership business. Having a previously bankrupt company rehabilitated and growing would seem to be the forces of capitalism at their best:

6. Why is Korea Line buying Hanjin Shipping’s Asia – US container business? (from Seatrade)

However, HMM who was poised to join the 2M Alliance (A.P. Moeller Maersk and MSC), now has been rejected by 2M; for sure, the containership liner industry is in the middle of major re-alignments in a market that keeps looking gloomy:

7. 2M Alliance rejects HMM (from the Korea Times)

Another week, and another shipping bank has to break some more bad news. NordLB in the news with additional provisions for their shipping loan portfolio:

8. NordLB warns on €1bn loss for year as shipping loans bite (from the Financial Times)

However, the capital markets show signs of thawing for shipping ideas, at least selectively. The Saverys family managed to raise $100 million for their Special Purpose Acquisition Vehicle (SPAC) for acquiring distressed shipping assets (ticker: HUNTU):

9. Hunters with a big warchest for dry bulk shipping (from Seatrade)

Some thoughts about shipping, mostly positive, ‘thankful’ thinking, in the spirit of the season:

10. A Thanksgiving for shipping (from Splash 24/7)

A majestic sunset. Image credit: Karatzas Images

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